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The Fed raised rates for the first time since 2023, the Clarity Act failed in the Senate, Washington is fighting over the Iran war, and oil is still sitting around $100. None of it touched Bitcoin, which broke the ceiling that had capped it since May, ran into the $87k yearly open on Monday night for its highest point since January, and is holding above $85k. So are we officially in a bull market?
Onchain is looking good too. $STONK hit ATH on Monday and StonkFun now earns about as much as pump.fun, the SEC opened a five year door for tokenized stocks on AMMs, which is exactly what Robinhood Chain is built for, $AI hit new ATH on this news.
📊 Market Outlook
Bitcoin at $86.2k, up about 13%, breaking out on Monday and tagging $87k for its highest point since January
Ethereum at $2,750, up about 11%, after dipping to $2,390 on Wednesday's Fed day
Solana at $118, up about 17%, from under $97 on Wednesday
HYPE at $97, up about 21%, new ATH on the FED Innovation exemption rules news
🏛️ BTC up despite Macro Bearishness
The Fed raised rates by 25bp on Wednesday to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first hike since July 2023, in a 12 to 0 vote, and Chairman Kevin Warsh stated: "inflation is too high and has been for too long." The Clarity Act failed its Senate vote 49 to 50, which leaves it dead for the year barring a lame duck long shot, and the House passed an Iran war powers resolution 220 to 204 with a veto expected.
Bitcoin did not care. It sat near $76k through the Fed, squeezed to $81k on Friday and closed the week at $81.2k. On Monday it cleared the $80k to $82k zone that had turned it away in May, in August and again in early September, ran to about $87k by Monday night, and spent Tuesday holding above $85k. Around $1B of positions were liquidated in a day, more than 80% of them shorts, and the spot ETFs took in $1B on Monday, their biggest day since last October.
🐂 So are we officially in a bull market?
By the textbook definition, yes, and we have been since late August, when Bitcoin closed 20% above its June 30 low near $58.5k. It is now up more than 45% from that low. Bitcoin closed a week above its 50 week average for the first time in 45 weeks, which Galaxy's Alex Thorn notes has historically been strong confirmation that the bear market low is in, and by Tuesday Glassnode counted it back above every one of its long term averages after about 300 days underneath them. Monday's $1B of spot ETF inflows was the biggest day since last October, and it puts the average ETF buyer back in profit for the first time since January.
🚀 Stonk caught up with pump.fun
StonkFun reported $7.6M of revenue for the week, with Monday its biggest day yet at $2.1M, $4.5M of it went to buybacks, 17% of the supply is now burned, the rewards paid out to holders of StonkFun coins went from $40M to $70M in a week, and StonkFun now counts 2M holders across those coins.
By revenue, StonkFun is now neck and neck with pump.fun. DeFiLlama has it at $7.4M over the last seven days against pump.fun's $7.8M, on Monday it out-earned pump.fun for the day by DeFiLlama's count, $1.8M to $1.25M, and it now makes more than LaunchLab, BONK.fun and Pons put together. Raydium says more than 10,000 traders have joined the $RAY community through StonkFun rewards, and this week's new pairs included $AVAX, $AMD, $INJ, $PEPE, $IONQ, $ARM and $APE.
Two StonkFun teams, @cokestonk and @EBToken_, opened public treasury profiles on gg this week, so holders can watch the treasury's bag, buys and trades in the open instead of taking a wallet screenshot on faith.
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